We examine the role of surprise in cyber conflict and introduce policy recommendations to reduce the chances of crises escalating. This paper integrates research from both views to better understand crisis stability in cyberspace across the range of geopolitical contexts, from relative peace to impending war. Optimists (believing that “No, cyber conflict is not escalatory”) and pessimists (“Oh, yes it is”) have each touched on parts of these mechanisms. We identify four key mechanisms: Pressure Release, Spark, Pull Out the Big Guns, and the Escalation Inversion. This paper introduces the concept of situational cyber stability, suggesting the key question is not “whether” cyber capabilities are escalatory but rather how they are escalatory under certain geopolitical conditions. Jason Healey, Robert Jervis As the United States shifts to a new military strategy of defending forward against adversaries in cyberspace, research into the role of cyber capabilities in crisis stability is especially relevant. Psychology of War | Special Issue: Cyber Competition September 28, 2020
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